Archive for November, 2007


Can’t find terrorists? Solution: recruit reluctant “terrorists,” then arrest them

Friday, November 30th, 2007

This stinks of entrapment. Check it out:  http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/30/us/nationalspecial3/30liberty.html

Excerpt:

Ana M. Jhones, the lawyer for Narseal Batiste, who is accused of being the ringleader, said her client was entrapped by the informants. She suggested that in one meeting, her client was nearly driven to tears as one of the informants persuaded him to take surveillance photographs of federal buildings around Miami.

No, I don’t think the FBI should tantalize poor people with money & then arrest them. And, no, I don’t think doing so promotes greater security.

Pissing off Hispanics, one state at a time

Friday, November 30th, 2007

Check it out… (full NY Times article here)

At least one state, Kansas, adopted a law this year declaring English its official language and eliminating requirements that official documents be produced in Spanish as well as English, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Measures favoring English have also proliferated in counties and towns.

The article is actually on Hispanic immigrants’ children learning English (they do; and by third generation, many no longer speak Spanish!). But my point is this: do we really have to piss off Hispanics due to the divisive immigration debate? Is that really necessary? I think not.

Of course, what does one expect, given that politics is divisive, whereas business/capitalism is inclusive? I.e., while businesses are more than willing to provide–OMG!–Spanish translations for their products/services, state governments are spurning Spanish-speakers. I don’t like this “immigrants not welcome” approach and I don’t consider it a logical or justifiable response to the real issue of border security.

Obama right on diplomacy w/ Iran

Tuesday, November 27th, 2007

Shelby Steele makes a very good point that Obama is right that diplomacy w/ Iran is a good idea. Also, just as interesting, he makes an interesting distinction between “wars of survival” (WWI and II, war in Afghanistan and broader war on terrorism, etc) and “wars of discipline” (Gulf war, war in Iraq, and some others). Both are important, but only one runs into difficulties explaining it, since “wars of discipline” tend to be more abstract and, hence, difficult to explain/justify for any long duration. In contrast, wars of survival are simplistic and easy to understand/justify.

How does this war dichotomy relate to Obama? Because ppl (esp conservatives… and Hillary!) tend to question the wisdom of consulting w/ enemies like Iran’s prez (Ahmadinejad). But that thinking is based on “wars of survival” (Steele’s analogy was the idea of Roosevelt talking to Hitler during WWII). But the stand-off w/ Iran really isn’t about survival, but more of preservation of the existing “system” (whose reputation is adversely affected if Iran has nukes; never mind the highly unrealistic talk of Iran giving nukes to bin Laden [a Sunni group deeply at odds w/ Iran's clerical leaders, mind you]). Hence, talking w/ such enemies is fundamentally different.

Interesting perspective. New terms are always interesting (assuming they’re well thought-out and accurate) since they make the strategic conversation more relevant/helpful/useful.

Promoting democracy abroad – worth it?

Tuesday, November 13th, 2007

That title may sound pretty surprising. I’m actually ardently pro-democracy. But implicitly, that means that I’m in favor of sustainable liberal democratic governance. And that sort of governance takes time. In other words, imposing such governance abroad  might actually serve to delay “real” democracy in the given area.

Promoting democracy in the long-term sense is a good idea. But if we ought not promote it in the direct sense, then what should we be promoting instead? The answer is capitalism.

In the past (and present, for that matter), I knew plenty of people who despise capitalism for some reason or another. Or, if they approve of capitalism in some senses, they certainly aren’t fans of globalization. Maybe they don’t like the “exploitation” of foreign workers (who clammer to be “exploited” for the higher pay). Or maybe, more greedily, they just don’t like the idea of competing with, say, software engineers in Bangalore and Mumbai. I can point to reasons why those lines of reasoning are entirely flawed, and why, in fact, our economy and job growth benefits from our broad connectivity to the rest of the world. But for now, I’ll make the strategic argument that we build business relationships before “imposing” our democratic will on others.

Politics is divisive. It necessarily divides people down often narrow, partisan lines. Further, it often promotes nationalist sentiment and even ethnocentrism. In politics, even those in agreement are only superficially aligned with each other. But while politics tends to divide people, it is business that unites them. Here, I’m speaking on a global scale. For example, political arrangements between the US and the Indian government have led to much in-fighting in India (w/ the current leadership & the Communist Party over the civilian nuclear agreement). The US/Bush administration has forged ties with the Indian government, but that relationship’s roots are shallow and could change in the next American (or Indian) presidential administration. In contrast, business relationships run deep. The reason: the exchange of human capital leads to an exchange of ideas in the broad sense, and greater cultural understanding that exceeds that which is afforded by grand political maneuvering.

A personal example: I’ve worked with many non-Americans as a software engineer. I’ve hung out w/ them and discussed various topics of conversation with them. The reason was because we were employed by the same company (or, as contractors, they worked with the company at which I worked). In other words, we exchanged ideas that went beyond work-related topics due not to grand political engagements but due to the connectivity afforded by globalized capitalism (globalization). Hence, not only is globalization arguably good in the economic sense, it’s also good in the sense that it brings disparate people together more substantially than other means. Capitalism, in effect, gives people of diverse backgrounds a meaningful and productive means of interaction.

Broadly speaking, it is jobs that are the ultimate antidote to bad governance and to international terrorism. The consequences of immediate and divisive pseudo-democracy in Pakistan might very well be loose nuclear warheads. Jordan, one of the most liberal Arab regimes in the middle east, is afraid of too-soon democracy for a similar reason: the possibility of extremists taking root in that country and reversing the very young democratic system that brought them to power. Or, perhaps they’re afraid that an “untidy” democratic model might lead to a decreased capacity to fight rogue elements, a possible or even likely outcome in countries such as Jordan, Pakistan, or other middle eastern countries. Another example: Saudi Arabia. Think Saudi Arabia would be a great place if democracy were immediately available overnight? I doubt it.

The plan is this: establish business relations that lead to an exchange of ideas. Yes, this route is more effective and substantial than grand political accords. Not that such political arrangements are ill-advised. They can certainly be helpful. But they’re not sufficient in themselves because they don’t provide the deep and rapid connectivity afforded by business & trade. People need jobs to steer them from terrorism’s grasp; they need the connectivity afforded by globalization’s reach to introduce “seditious” ideas, like the idea that men and women have equal rights and that people have freedom of speech and of religion. That comes first, before democracy, if we want democratic governance to last & serve the purpose of long-term peace.

N Korea opening up?

Sunday, November 11th, 2007

N Korea appears to be–slowly but surely–opening up to the outside world.

Choi Won-ho has made six trips to North Korea in the past two years, struggling each time to convince the reclusive government there that the time was ripe for a chicken franchise.

“I told those guys that Kentucky Fried Chicken would come sooner or later,” said Choi, president of a company that has franchised 70 chicken restaurants in South Korea. “I told them it would be better to have an indigenous Korean brand, with takeout delivery.”

To Choi’s astonishment, his pitch is now falling on receptive ears in Pyongyang. This month, he plans to open the first foreign-run restaurant in the North Korean capital in the history of the Stalinist dictatorship.

Conclusion: political pressure & diplomacy can break down barriers and punish bad behavior, but it is the business community that builds bridges and encourages good behavior.

Yemini terrorists… and US strategy in the GWOT

Sunday, November 11th, 2007

Very interesting commentary (and criticism) of US strategy in executing the global war on terrorism. Basically, Yemen is trying to decrease the influence of terrorists in that country by pitting some members of al Qaeda against others. Sensible strategy, right? Except that the US doesn’t agree (or at least Giuliani doesn’t, unfortunately).

Last 2 paras:

The four months of negotiation and subsequent release of Badawi is coherent with this strategy. Obviously, any policy that includes releasing terrorists responsible for US deaths, especially a policy that is as opaque and personalized as the Yemeni one, is not one that is designed to please the United States. But the solution is not to try to change Yemen’s priorities by threatening to withdraw aid [listening, Rudy?] at a time when it is struggling with a host of economic and security problems. An insistence on viewing all jihadists as part of the same organization will not help either.

Yemen’s effort to play two generations of Al Qaeda off against each other is a nuanced and local response to a complex problem. [Note: bold-faced font is mine.] The United States has to realize that a one-size-fits-all approach to the war on terrorism is not in its long-term interests. Diplomatic carrots rather than threatening sticks are the only way to convince Yemen to pursue a counterterrorism strategy that benefits both countries.

Chavez’s criminal paradise

Sunday, November 11th, 2007

Interesting story in the LA Times which blames, in a large part, Hugo Chavez’s socialist experiment in that country on a rise in global criminal activity, including the narcotics trade. Excerpt:

While this situation has so far been rather invisible to the rest of the world, it is patently clear to those in charge of fighting transnational crime. Anti-trafficking officials in Europe, the United States, Asia and other Latin American countries are paying unprecedented attention to Venezuela. These officials are not particularly interested in Venezuelan politics or in Chavez’s policies. All they care about is that the tentacles of these global criminal networks are spreading from Venezuela into their countries with enormous power and at great speed.

China in the 21st century

Friday, November 2nd, 2007

China is increasingly taken to task for food & drug standards. Now, they’re responding.

This points to a larger trend though. China is increasing being forced to respond to the rest of the world wrt financial transparency (market regulation), food and drug exports, virus outbreaks (that could lead to global flu pandemics, that is), and so forth. While we may think of these things as isolated incidents, they point to a larger trend: greater transparency & responsiveness by China, esp in aspects that relate to business/economics.

Give it time, and we’ll start seeing greater political transparency & accountability as well.

Good move by Obama

Friday, November 2nd, 2007

In this NY Times article, Obama makes good sense regarding Iran. Here’s a key para:

Making clear that he planned to talk to Iran without preconditions, Mr. Obama emphasized further that “changes in behavior” by Iran could possibly be rewarded with membership in the World Trade Organization, other economic benefits and security guarantees.

I’d prefer “behavior change” over “regime change” as well. And in a country that’s more pro-American than France (stipulation: looking at the people, not just the gov’t), I’d say we have a good shot at it. Bottom line: good move by Obama. The Long War against terrorist groups & rogue regimes requires both sticks and carrots, not just sticks (a la Bush’s approach).